By Victoria Verdesoto-Phothirath
Progress so far: the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience and the First GST Outcome
The previous COP saw the establishment of the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience (UAE FGCR), expanding on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) established under the Paris Agreement (Article 7.1). The GGA aims to drive climate action on climate adaptation at the same scale as climate mitigation efforts, through “enhancing [the world’s] adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change.”
The UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience calls for all countries to have National Adaptation Plans submitted by 2025 and make implementation progress by 2030. It highlights seven broad thematic targets as global climate adaptation priorities: water, food and agriculture, health, ecosystems and biodiversity, poverty and livelihoods, infrastructure, and cultural heritage.
The importance of these sectors varies geographically, requiring a contextualised approach for each country. This is why the UAE FGCR urges countries to conduct climate vulnerability and risk assessments, plan for adaptation, implement them, and establish monitoring, evaluating and learning (MEL) mechanisms. This iterative process is aligned with National Adaptation Plan processes. Additionally, a two year timeline was established under the UAE-Belem Work Programme for the development of measurable indicators for monitoring and evaluating progress on the UAE FGCR aim.
However, one of the major criticisms of the UAE FGCR is its vague language on supporting developing countries via finance, capacity-building, and technology transfer, that are the key means of implementation. Moreover, it fails to place an obligation on developed countries to provide, track or evaluate support for climate adaptation action, or integrate ideas of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC). Therefore, the effectiveness of the UAE FGCR in its current form is diminished due to the lack of public financial support to help developing countries achieve the targets set.
Another important topic at COP28 was the first Global Stocktake (GST) outcome as countries prepare their next iteration of NDCs. The GST outcome highlights the role of “grant-based, highly concessional finance, and non-debt instruments” as pivotal for countries’ just transitions, and “urges” governments to report on their progress on at least doubling adaptation finance by 2025 (from 2019 levels). Importantly, it decides to convene the first ministerial dialogue on climate adaptation at COP29, as it recognises the widening of the adaptation finance gap.
What to expect from COP29
As an overall theme for COP29, a financing target for adaptation (as well as avenues for mobilisation) will be critical, since this remains one of the key barriers globally for adaptation.
Taking into consideration the decisions stemming from the first Global Stocktake, the first ever ministerial dialogue on climate adaptation at COP29 will be an opportunity to ensure that financial resources address vulnerable countries’ highly specific climate adaptation needs such as technology transfer, infrastructure, knowledge and institutional capacity. The establishment of New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG) will be essential to drive momentum to close the adaptation finance gap, which is estimated to be USD 215–387 billion annually up until 2030. For this, countries must provide updates outlining their progress in doubling adaptation finance by 2025, along with a specific roadmap for its achievement.
In light of the first Global Stocktake outcome detailed above, it is crucial that the UAE FGCR’s indicators align with the second GST and that, at COP29, negotiators agree on guidance for the determination of indicators to meet the GGA. Indicators should measure the impacts of adaptation actions, but also track their implementation and quantify resource allocation towards adaptation efforts sectorally. Indicators should also be easily understandable by a wide range of stakeholders and reduce countries’ reporting burdens as much as possible by connecting them to existing reporting frameworks within UNFCCC (NAPs, NDCs, national communications).
Adaptation finance beyond the UNFCCC
Scaling up private sector finance remains a challenge, but is central to closing the adaptation finance gap. A significant hurdle lies in financing adaptation and resilience actions. Innovative risk-sharing mechanisms, such as insurance and catastrophe bonds, can help address this gap by transferring climate risk from businesses and communities to capital markets. Increasing and directing finance towards adaptation actions will enable businesses to allocate necessary resources and accelerate implementation.
Additionally, strong commitments on adaptation at COP29, together with targets, indicators and feasible implementation plans are needed to create an enabling environment for businesses to act on adaptation. For example, National Adaptation Plans (NAP) at present lack direct links to the private sector or measures to incentivise the private sector.
“The mobilisation of private finance for climate adaptation projects in emerging markets has been slow, largely due to the complex interplay of long payback periods, uncertain revenue streams, and difficulties in quantifying direct financial returns, leading to high risk premiums. These risk premiums make adaptation projects prohibitively expensive and challenging to finance through traditional market mechanisms — even when their fundamental value proposition is sound. What’s particularly challenging is that many adaptation projects require substantial upfront capital while operating in regulatory environments that aren’t yet fully evolved to support innovative financing mechanisms.
In this context, global climate funds like the Green Climate Fund (GCF) play a crucial role in de-risking private investments through blended finance instruments, first-loss provisions, and technical assistance —effectively catalyzing private capital by improving the risk-return profile of adaptation projects. GCF involvement can also strengthen future capital raising efforts by providing a stamp of approval that helps attract additional investors.
At E Co., we work with private investors — including impact investors, asset managers, development and commercial banks — in developing GCF funding proposals for climate adaptation focused debt and equity projects. While the GCF application process has historically been complex and lengthy, the new Project Specific Assessment Approach (PSAA) is eliminating pre-accreditation requirements, making GCF funding more accessible to private investors.“
Zsofia Kovacs, Principal consultant at E Co.
COP28 laid the groundwork for enhanced global climate adaptation efforts with the establishment of the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience. However, the framework’s effectiveness depends on the provision of a clear roadmap for countries and recognising the unequal exposure and vulnerability to climate-induced risks.
At COP29, securing a dedicated financing target for adaptation, aligning the UAE FGCR’s indicators with the Global Stocktake, and mobilising private sector finance will be crucial. By addressing these key priorities, we can ensure that the world is better equipped to adapt to the impacts of climate change.
Are you in Baku? We invite you to connect in Baku with our Managing director, Rowan Putman and our Senior analyst Victoria Verdesoto Phothirath by sending a message to enquiries@ecoltdgroup.com to set up a meeting and share your news and ask your questions.
Whether you’re attending in person or following the proceedings remotely, we want to hear your thoughts, questions, and experiences. How do you see the outcomes of COP29 impacting your work? Reach out to us on LinkedIn, or come find us in Baku!