By Paula Brufman and Ayoub Omri
The global community is holding its breath as the clock ticks down to COP 30 on Monday 10 November, 2025. Countries must submit their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), or “NDC 3.0,” by this date. These contributions must show a higher level of ambition, aligning with the goals of the Paris Agreement. These promises are based on the first Global Stocktake (GST) that took place at COP28 and are designed to help keep global warming to 1.5°C. But the stakes couldn’t be higher this year, because, despite the impending deadline, some of the largest emitters, including China, the EU, India and Indonesia, have not yet submitted final NDCs including 2035 targets, or are still negotiating internal positions. Given that COP 30 is where these promises will be looked at, broken down, and hopefully turned into concrete, sector-specific solutions, the anticipation continues to mount.
The deadline that is coming up and an inconvenient truth
The Paris Agreement says that countries must adjust their NDCs every five years to make them more ambitious in order to close the emissions gap. The GST, a full analysis of how far we’ve come as a group, showed that the globe is on track to warm by 2.5–2.9°C, if things keep going the way they are. In response, governments were told to change their plans to include economy-wide goals for 2030 and new long-term goals for 2035. As of early September 2025, only about 30 countries have submitted updated or new NDCs that include targets through 2035, covering roughly one-fifth of global emissions..
So far, just a few countries have reached the goal. Earlier estimates suggested that just 21 countries will have filed by May 2025, and even fewer from high-impact emitters.
China is the biggest producer of greenhouse gases in the world. While President Xi Jinping promised in April to deliver before COP30, there has been no official update yet. The EU is also rushing against the long September deadline without a definite submission while trying to make things more consistent inside its own borders under its European Climate Law. This delay isn’t just a case of bureaucratic foot-dragging; it’s a sign of broader problems with economic objectives, geopolitical rivalry, and the difficulty of changing national strategies. A draft EU document suggests it may miss the UN’s September deadline or submit a provisional range, because its 2035 target is being derived from yet-to-be finalised 2040 goals.
The delay makes things worse for developing countries who are already suffering from the effects of climate change. Small island nations, Latin American and African countries, which had the least to do with this climate crisis, are calling for urgent accountability.
COP30: The pressure cooker for Paris alignment
The COP30 conference will take place in the Amazonian heart of Brazil from 10-21 November, 2025. It is being called the ‘implementation COP’, and it promises to turn GST insights into real progress. The Brazilian presidency has set the agenda around six main themes, from forests and food systems to finance and fair transitions. The goal is to fill the conference with viable action plans from all sectors. We can likely expect pavilions to be full of people arguing about how NDCs compare to GST suggestions. Do they have strong non-CO2 targets? Are adaptation measures based on how vulnerable people are? And most importantly, do they include nature-based solutions to safeguard important areas for biodiversity, like the Amazon?
The GST isn’t simply a look back; it’s a plan for the future. It wants to triple the amount of renewable energy available, double the efficiency of energy use, and cut methane emissions by 2030. At COP30, countries will have to pay the price if their NDCs don’t meet expectations. Brazil’s ‘Global Mutirão’ is a group effort to get people to act quickly. It will show where things are missing, and regional talks are already happening in London, Bogotá, and other places. But there are still whispers of division. Wealthier countries may talk about technological cures, but the Global South says that loss-and-damage payments and technology transfers are non-negotiable.
Looking ahead to the debates: From ambition to responsibility
As we look ahead, COP30’s hallways will be filled with traditional fault lines, but they will be louder because of the GST’s urgency. First, levels of ambition based on mid-year reviews suggest that the NDCs that were submitted only make small advances on the 2030 goals, and none of the tracked majors have made any stronger pledges. There will be a lot of arguing over the ‘indicative’ goals for 2035. How binding should they be, and can they make up for the 15-gigatonne annual emissions shortfall?
In addition to the NDC 3.0 wave, COP30 is pushing forward a complementary tool: the Globally Determined Contribution (GDC). Proposed by Brazil’s COP30 presidency, the GDC aims to expand the notion of climate pledges beyond national governments to include commitments from non-state actors such as, cities, regions, companies, civil society thereby creating a more comprehensive, inclusive framework of climate action.
Under this scheme, the COP30 Action Agenda will serve as a reservoir of concrete initiatives, grouped under six thematic axes, which align with the Global Stocktake’s diagnosis of where ambition is lacking.
By bringing in non-state actors, the GDC has the potential to fill in gaps where national pledges are weak or delayed; moreover, it could intensify accountability, transparency, and speed of implementation. Critically, it raises questions: How will these non-state commitments be monitored? Will they count toward the emission targets assumed in NDCs and GST? And will they shift expectations of bindingness or responsibility, especially for high-emitters and private sector actors? Including the GDC in the climate architecture may be one of the few ways to bridge the growing ambition-implementation gap heading into Belém.
These aren’t just pointless arguments, they’ll affect trade rules, carbon markets and ultimately, how finance moves. Blended finance models and carbon pricing could become bridges, but only if NDCs give investors the detailed plans they want.
E Co.’s lens: Leading the way in policy making
At E Co., we’ve been at the crossroads of policy and practice for years, helping governments write NDCs that are more than just promises on paper but are rather the engines of change. Working on sector-wide initiatives has shown us that connecting national policies with GST outcomes needs more than just ambition; it needs new policy tools. We’ve come up with ways to budget based on emissions and work with both the public and private sectors to turn weaknesses into strengths and make sure that everyone has a fair transition.
As COP30 grows closer, we’re working even harder. Our history shows that credible NDCs don’t just happen; they are made when policy design and purpose come together. Let’s fill COP30 with policies and opportunities that will defend our shared future. The Amazon isn’t just a place to go, it’s a reminder of what’s at stake.
Explore the rest of our road to Belém series to gain deeper insights into global climate action ahead of COP30.
- Why COP30 in Brazil could be a turning point for global climate action
- The Belém mandate: Why collaborative networks will define the success of COP30
- Reframing climate multilateralism: The Mutirão and the power of Indigenous collaboration
- From ambition to action: COP30 and accelerating the agriculture and food systems transformation