By Elena Remp and Florentia Loizides
With COP30 on the horizon, the discourse on global climate finance has moved from ambition to delivery. While the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap and the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) laid the groundwork for a new architecture of climate action, progress at COP30 will hinge on cultivating the right enabling environment to turn commitments into results. Finance, governance, carbon markets, adaptation strategies, and technological innovation are the levers which can bridge political ambition with practical implementation, addressing the structural barriers which limit climate investments. Whether COP30 can turn promise into progress will depend on how successfully it mobilises and coordinates these critical enablers.
Mobilising climate finance at scale
As COP30 approaches, climate finance is once again at the centre of negotiations. The Baku-to-Belém Roadmap, adopted at COP29, established a baseline commitment to scale international climate finance for developing countries to at least USD 1.3 trillion annually from all public and private sources by 2035. As part of this framework, parties also adopted the NCQG, through which developed countries pledged to contribute at least USD 300 billion annually to support developing countries in addressing climate change. These figures, far above the USD 100 billion target of the previous decade, reflect both the growing urgency of climate impacts and the scale of the investment needed to achieve climate-resilient development.
Achieving the targets of the Baku-to-Belém roadmap is hindered by a complex set of financial, institutional and structural challenges. Many developing countries lack bankable project pipelines with robust revenue models, limiting their ability to attract private investors. This is compounded by unstable policy environments, regulatory volatility, and information gaps, particularly in adaptation where impacts are difficult to quantify and monetise. High perceived investment risks, weak institutional capacity, and limited coordination between public and private actors further constrain progress.
To bridge these gaps, time and time again, we hear the call and agree that COP30 must establish a credible framework which translates financial targets into investable pathways. A stable policy environment is the foundation of this effort, as investors consistently stress the importance of predictable regulations, policies and incentives to mobilise private capital. Equally important is the expansion of blended finance instruments, such as first-loss structures and guarantees, which leverage public capital to de-risk projects and make them more attractive to private investors. This should culminate in a ‘guarantee surge’, led by development banks, to mobilise large pools of private capital toward climate goals.
E Co’s experience demonstrates how these challenges can be overcome. E Co. supported the design of the &Green Fund (GCF FP212), securing USD 189 million in Green Climate Fund (GCF) finance that was blended into a nearly USD 1 billion facility for inclusive agriculture and forest protection across Latin America, Africa, and Asia. The fund’s objective was to scale investment into zero-deforestation, sustainable and regenerative agriculture within critical supply chains. The multi-phase support began with an essential gap analysis and exploratory assessment to benchmark &Green’s readiness against stringent GCF requirements. This foundational work led to the preparation of the GCF Concept Note, where the project’s Theory of Change, context, and core activities were defined and structured. Finally, E Co. provided crucial advisory and drafting support for the full GCF Funding Proposal and its annexes, culminating in the formal submission and engagement with the GCF Secretariat for approval.
Success at COP30 would mean more than reaffirming financial pledges. It would involve launching sectoral delivery tracks under the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap, defining metrics for concessionality and adaptation shares, and operationalising new blended finance mechanisms and project preparation platforms. By connecting political commitments to investable instruments, COP30 could ensure that the USD 1.3 trillion target translates into real, bankable projects, particularly in the countries and communities that need them most.
Mainstreaming adaptation into climate finance
Current adaptation finance flows remain dramatically insufficient. As of 2023, adaptation finance reached only USD 65 billion, a fraction of the USD 310-365 billion developing countries will require each year by 2035. This shortfall stems from the nature of adaptation projects, which often deliver public goods and avoided losses rather than clear, monetisable revenue streams. Combined with weak regulatory environments and the long-term nature of adaptation benefits, these factors heighten perceived risk and deter private investment, which currently accounts for around 2% of total adaptation finance.
COP30 presents an opportunity to mainstream adaptation within the broader climate finance agenda through political and technical measures. Politically, establishing a dedicated adaptation sub-goal under the NCQG would secure a guaranteed share of climate finance for adaptation efforts. On the technical front, several priorities must be addressed: improving data availability and developing comparable metrics to assess adaptation benefits and returns; reducing inflated risk perceptions that deter investment in adaptation projects; and clarifying the definition and scope of adaptation itself. In addition, dedicated national project preparation facilities will be essential to turn adaptation concepts into bankable, investment-ready projects.
A successful outcome in Belém will require combining political ambition with technical action, linking an NCQG sub-goal for adaptation with a coordinated surge in blended finance, alongside the operationalisation of national project preparation facilities. Together, these measures would help embed adaptation within mainstream investment practices, directing resources to the countries and communities most at risk.
Harmonising carbon markets
Brazil enters COP30 in Belém with a transformative proposal: the creation of an Open Coalition for Carbon Market Integration, designed to harmonise disparate carbon trading systems across regions and establish a transparent, predictable framework for global interoperability. This proposal directly addresses one of the most persistent barriers to scaling carbon markets: fragmentation. Today, over 70 carbon pricing instruments exist with diverging rules, registries, and standards. While Article 6 of the Paris Agreement established the foundation for international trading, its slow operationalisation and technical divisions have hindered progress. Brazil’s coalition approach seeks to cut through this by proposing a unified framework for interoperability, transparency, and integrity among willing countries.
Without this harmonisation, and facing growing criticism over low-quality offsets and opaque governance, trust in carbon markets risks collapse just as they are needed to unlock transformative private investment into mitigation. The Open Coalition aims to restore this trust by embedding safeguards and clear accounting rules that prevent double counting and strengthen the link between voluntary markets and NDCs. A successful COP30 must therefore see parties endorse this Coalition, agree to pilot interoperable registries, and adopt clear integrity principles to make carbon markets a genuine accelerator of global decarbonisation.
Strengthening governance and institutional capacity
The ambitious financial targets of the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap require institutional capacity for effective implementation. At COP30, strengthened governance and capacity-building will be key means of implementation, focused on enhancing the ability of institutions to identify and address capacity gaps, foster collaboration and innovation, and scale up effective, inclusive actions that advance national climate priorities.
The capacity agenda will be highlighted through the 7th Capacity-building Hub, which will serve as an inclusive platform for all individuals and entities engaged in climate action to exchange knowledge, share experiences, and strengthen collaboration across sectors and regions. Among other aims, the Hub will provide a space to share achievements and lessons learned in building and retaining capacity to support the implementation and enhancement of NDCs and broader climate goals.
At E Co., we recognise that building capacity is central to delivering on global climate goals. Through one of our seven services and dedicated training arm,E Co. Institute, we support both organisations and individuals by providing targeted training and capacity development that addresses these very gaps. We equip teams with skills for long-term project design, create projects tailored to local needs, improve efficiency through optimised project design, and cultivate a culture of continuous learning and knowledge sharing. Our team of expert trainers has designed and delivered training for numerous international development agencies covering the GCF, GEF, Adaptation Fund and others, including Direct Access Entities, National Designated Authorities, Governments, NGOs, and the private sector. You can sign up to our E Co. institute waiting list to join our training community when it opens, here.
Leveraging AI and digital technologies
Ahead of COP30, AI has been elevated as a cross-cutting enabler for climate action, as underlined by the COP30 Presidency’s pilot workshop for the Artificial Intelligence Climate Institute. The most promising applications for climate goals are found in remote sensing, machine learning, and digital-twin modelling, enabling near real-time monitoring of natural resources and infrastructure resilience simulations. AI also bolsters adaptation by powering enhanced early-warning systems for extreme weather and transforming large datasets into actionable insights for financiers and project developers.
However, this digital transition presents environmental and equity tensions. The hidden emissions footprint of digital acceleration is a rising concern, with projections showing a sharp increase in data-centre electricity demand and operational emissions from leading AI-focused tech companies. Furthermore, digital divides could be exacerbated if AI-driven tools are deployed without deliberate investment in connectivity for vulnerable, climate-exposed communities.
Ensuring that AI genuinely serves climate action demands more than just technical innovation: it requires ethical and equitable digital transitions. The challenge at COP30 is not only to harness AI as a climate accelerator but to align its deployment with principles of justice, equity, and sustainability. This means closing the digital divide, embedding transparency in algorithm governance, and ensuring the benefits of digital solutions strengthen resilience and opportunity across all regions.
Leveraging AI and digital technologies
COP30 offers an unprecedented opportunity to align political commitments, financial flows, and technological innovation within a coherent global framework for climate action. Delivering on the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap, embedding adaptation in mainstream finance, harmonising carbon markets, and leveraging AI for equitable transformation are not separate goals, but interdependent pillars of an effective response to the climate crisis. Success in Belém will depend on turning promises into investable pathways, ensuring that governance structures are robust, and that digital transitions are fair and sustainable.
We invite you to explore E Co’s full range of technical advisory and climate finance consultancy services to ensure your projects and policies are inclusive and participatory. Furthermore, our Consultant, Felipe Arenas and Principal, consultant Riccardo Magini will be attending COP30. Do not hesitate to reach out to them at enquiries@ecoltdgroup.com.
Explore the rest of our road to Belém series to gain deeper insights into global climate action ahead of COP30.
- Why COP30 in Brazil could be a turning point for global climate action
- High stakes: NDCs and the global stocktake
- The Belém mandate: Why collaborative networks will define the success of COP30
- Reframing climate multilateralism: The Mutirão and the power of Indigenous collaboration
- From ambition to action: COP30 and accelerating the agriculture and food systems transformation
- Human & social development: Placing just transition, health, jobs, and equity at the centre